If you’re chomping at the bit to buy a home this year, right now could be the best month to make your move.
I know, I know. A lot of folks are planning to wait until May, thinking that’s the best time because typically, around then, you see a lot more homes going on the market.
The thing is, you also see a lot more buyers, too, which means more competition. Bottom line, you’re far less likely to get a deal as a buyer when you wait for the crowd. Like every year in the real estate market, the biggest prizes go to the first-movers.
Here’s what the research shows.
According to a new LendingTree study, buying in January could actually save you more than $20K on the price of your home.
Based on data from home sales across all of 2024, buyers who purchased a 1,500-square-foot home in January paid about $23,400 less than buyers who bought the same size home in May. We’re talking down payment money. It could also be the difference between stretching and feeling comfortable month-to-month.
Why buying in January is typically less expensive
This pattern shows up almost every year.
In 2024, May was the most expensive month to buy, with a (national) median price of $194.20 per square foot. January was 8.0% cheaper at $178.60 per square foot. February was 5.4% cheaper at $183.70.
On a typical 1,500-square-foot home, that gap between January and May adds up to about $23,400.
That happens because of how people behave. More buyers shop in the spring and summer. In fact, Americans buy about 1.4 times more homes in the summer than in the winter.
In 2024 alone, May accounted for 9.9% of all home sales, while January was just 6.3%.
More buyers means more competition. More competition pushes prices up. Fewer buyers does the opposite.
Even across different home sizes, the pattern holds. Prices per square foot tend to peak in June and hit their lowest point in January. Smaller homes and large homes both follow that same seasonal rhythm.
What the market looks like right now
This January advantage is showing up at a time when the broader market is already cooling.
According to Realtor.com, the national median home price was $399,950, down 0.6% from November. That may not sound dramatic, but it’s a sign that prices aren’t racing higher.
Inventory is also shifting. Active listings were up 12.1% from a year earlier, even though they fell 8.9% from November to December, which is normal for the holidays.
At the same time, total inventory dipped below 1 million homes and is still 12.5% below what was typical from 2017 through 2019.
What that means in plain English is this. There are more sellers than last year, fewer buyers than spring, and homes aren’t flying off the market the way they do when everyone shows up at once.
[***Optional:
In [Your Market], that shows up as [Median Home Price in Your Market], [Active Listings in Your Market], and [Typical Days on Market in Your Market].
I include those numbers to show you how much breathing room buyers actually have. ***]
Why buyers have more leverage in January
When homes sit longer, sellers listen more.
Nationally, newly listed homes spend a median of 75 days on the market in January. From April through June, that drops to 48 days. That difference changes how a deal gets negotiated.
When a home’s been sitting for two and a half months, the seller’s usually more open to conversations about price, closing costs, repairs, and even interest rate buydowns. When a home gets five offers in a weekend, those conversations disappear.
In a January market, buyers are more likely to get things like:
A lower purchase price
Seller-paid closing costs
Repair credits
Help buying down the interest rate
Each one of those affects how much cash you bring to the table and how much you’ll pay every month.
What that $23,000 really means
That $23,400 difference can shift everything from your down payment to your monthly payment. It changes the math, not just at the closing table but for every month you live in that home.
Here’s what that difference can mean:
A bigger down payment, which lowers your loan and your payment
A better shot at hitting 20% down and avoiding PMI
More money left in your savings after closing
Less stress about every unexpected expense that pops up
Should you buy now or wait?
Full disclosure: January is not perfect. There are fewer homes to choose from. You might not find five versions of the same house on the same street.
But the tradeoff is leverage:
There’s less competition
Sellers are more flexible
Prices are usually lower than what spring brings
If you’re planning to buy in [Your Market] this year anyway, it’s worth at least looking now. The calendar alone can save you tens of thousands of dollars, and that’s rare in real estate.
You don’t have to rush. You just shouldn’t ignore what the data’s telling you.
Lavanya
Real Estate Investor & Agent
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